GIDE Theory of Change (ToC)

GIDE was created in answer to a growing demand from policymakers: credible evidence of what actually works to advance inclusive green growth — across economic and social development, agriculture, and the environment, natural resources, and climate change adaptation and mitigation. We produce that evidence through rigorous impact evaluation of multiple studies, so policies and programs can be shaped by what works rather than by opinion.

Our Theory of Change (ToC) is the tool that guides this work, in both program evaluation and systematic reviews of evidence. Put simply, it is the sequence of events expected to lead to a lasting development outcome — improving people's lives.

What our Theory of Change sets out

  • The context — the social, political, and environmental conditions, the current state of the problem, and the other actors able to influence change

  • The long-term change the initiative seeks to support, and the ultimate benefit

  • The pathway of change — the sequence expected to lead to that outcome

  • The assumptions behind it — a check on whether the activities and outputs are the right ones to drive change in this context

  • A diagram and narrative that capture the whole

Every outcome needed to reach the long-term goal is mapped onto a pathway of change — a graphic representation of how change happens — around which the ToC describes the interventions that produce the outputs, outcomes, and impacts shown.

The three problems we exist to solve — and how we now solve them

GIDE's Theory of Change confronts three persistent failures in development, and the GIDE–ScaleX Labs partnership is built to answer each one:

  • Outcomes go unmeasured. The results of development actions are too often not measured effectively. GIDE brings the evaluation rigor; ScaleX Labs' AI-Powered MEL System makes measurement continuous and affordable, not a one-off exercise.

  • Decisions rest on opinion, not evidence. Which problems to tackle is too often a matter of opinion rather than evidence of what works, when, why, and by how much. GIDE produces policy-ready evidence; ScaleX Labs turns it into searchable, decision-ready tools — including GenTraQ™ for Gender Transformative change and analytics for scalability and value for money.

  • Costly programs still fail to transform lives. Because programs rarely use policy-ready evidence, millions are spent without the intended impact. Together, GIDE and ScaleX Labs put usable evidence directly in practitioners' hands, closing the gap between what is known and what is done.

What we aim to achieve

Across the low- and middle-income countries of Africa and Asia, GIDE and ScaleX Labs work toward:

  • A stronger cadre of professionals, policymakers, researchers, and partners able to lead country-owned impact evaluations and use and share the evidence

  • A searchable, web-based body of policy-ready evidence, accessible to decision-makers through the ScaleX Labs platform

  • The adoption of Evidence-Based Practice in planning and policymaking — for better policies, more effective outcomes, and the best value for money from public resources

Throughout, the principle holds: national institutions and their professionals lead the judgment; AI-aided tools strengthen their reach and speed. People lead. AI strengthens.

The diagram below shows GIDE's Theory of Change across the full sequence — from the production of evidence to the formulation and implementation of better policies and programs.